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Views & Research

02/07/2024

Central banks say there is “no rush” as no landing risk rises

Markets have shifted slightly away from a soft-landing scenario for the US and global economies since

Views & Research

12/19/2023

What caused the Fed’s sudden lurch towards a dovish bias?

Global asset markets have moved dramatically towards a soft landing in the US, and this has dragged other developed markets in the same direction.

Views & Research

11/22/2023

The rising importance of financial conditions for Fed policy

A look at how the global asset markets have increased the probability attached to a soft landing, at least in the US, over the past month.

Views & Research

11/13/2023

US recession risks – the Fulcrum and Sahm models

A look how Fulcrum continues to place a great deal of weight on its nowcast models.

Views & Research

11/13/2023

Nowcasting in 2023: a retrospective

The year 2022 saw a sequence of contractionary shocks hit the global economy.

Views & Research

10/24/2023

Why did Powell change his guidance?

Markets have recently been navigating significant changes in news flow, involving geopolitical risks and important developments regarding US growth and core inflation data.

Views & Research

10/11/2023

The Fed’s latest thinking on R* and the term premium

While Powell’s remarks remain the benchmark speech on the bond debacle, there have been new interpretations that complicate the picture.

News

09/29/2023

Fulcrum’s Research Team influences NY Fed recent nowcasting

Staff economists cite Fulcrum research team in paper describing new approach

Views & Research

09/14/2023

Investors in the UK and US show mixed feelings on investment outlook over next 12 months

Fulcrum has released new research comparing views from professional investors on both sides of the Atlantic on the macroeconomic outlook.

Videos & Podcasts

09/06/2023

Money Life Podcast – how higher interest rates are changing the IPO

Paul Seaton discusses the firm's recent survey of investment advisers and discusses where those money managers want to go to diversify client portfolios now.

Views & Research

09/06/2023

Rise in real yields dominates markets in August

The strong performance by so-called “balanced” portfolios so far in the 2023 calendar year has been somewhat surprising to many macro economists.

News

08/10/2023

Fulcrum completes climate-alignment of strategic equity allocation

Fulcrum's strategic equity component of its flagship diversified absolute return strategy is now fully climate-aligned.

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